Definition
In states where voting by mail and/or early in-person voting rates are high, the score represents the probability that an individual (who votes) will cast a ballot more than 1 week prior to election day, rather than less than 1 week prior to election day. In states where sufficiently good data on vote timing is unavailable, the score represents the probability that an individual (who votes) casts a ballot prior to election day, rather than on election day.
Score Type By State
The Early Vote Score is meant to predict how likely an individual who votes will cast their ballot early, with higher scores indicating greater likelihood of voting early. However, because early voting laws and data availability vary significantly across states, the specific score threshold used to define ‘early’ differs, depending on geography:
- Timing Definition Used - probability of voting more than 1 week before election day (among voters): AR, CA, CT, CO, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, LA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MT, NC, ND, NE, NJ, NM, OH, OR, PA, SC, TX, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WY
- Early Vote Binary Definition Used — probability of voting before election day, rather than on election day (among voters): AK, AZ, DC, KS, KY, MA, MO, NH, NV, NY, OK, RI, SD, TN, WV
Note also that 2 states (Alabama and Mississippi) do not have early voting, so no early vote score is available for registered voters in these states.
Location
Model Scores
Methodology
See the Model Scores Overview for information about our methodology and the Early Vote Model Score Release Notes.