Down Ballot Completion Score Release Notes

Definition

The Down Ballot Completion Score indicates a person's likelihood to vote in local races and for ballot initiatives.

Technical Details

The Down Ballot Completion Score was built from the following two polling questions:

Question 1: When you vote, how often do you vote in the Local Races?

• Always
• Usually
• Sometimes
• Rarely or never

Question 2: When you vote, how often do you vote for Ballot Initiatives?

• Always
• Usually
• Sometimes
• Rarely or never

Respondents who answered “Always” or “Usually” to both questions 1 and 2 were labeled as targets in the Down ballot completion model. All other respondents were labeled as non-targets. 

The Down Ballot Completion Score was trained on polling data from the Spring 2024 Murmuration poll. We  collected over 6,500 responses via phone and online from registered voters. The survey used stratified random sampling to ensure national representativeness across age, race, gender, partisanship, education and geography.

The model was trained using gradient-boosted decision trees. Model features were drawn from the Atlas by Murmuration dataset, which includes demographic (age, race, gender, etc.), commercial, geographic, and vote history information for all registered voters nationally.

Scores range from 0-100, where higher scores indicate greater likelihood that a voter will vote down their ballot. The score represents the model's predicted probability (scaled to 0-100) that an individual votes in local races and for ballot initiatives.

Use Cases

This score can be used in three ways depending on your goals and broader campaign strategy. Each of the strategies below includes targeting high propensity voters using an appropriate turnout score. 

• Down Ballot Persuasion: By using the higher end of the Down Ballot Completion Score, organizations can focus their outreach efforts on individuals who are already likely to vote for these offices/ballot propositions. With a universe made up of voters likely to turn out and to complete their ballot, an organization or campaign can then deliver information intended to persuade them to support specific candidates or ballot initiatives. Partners can create this universe by filtering to voters with both a high turnout score and a high Down Ballot Completion Score. As a result, they will ensure their messaging reaches voters most likely to fully complete their ballots, optimizing resource allocation and the impact of their outreach. 
• Down Ballot Completion/GOTV: For voters who fall mid to low on the Down Ballot Completion Score, a more instructive outreach can aim to encourage them to complete their ballot. Campaigns could send reminders about the importance of voting in local races or provide information on the candidates and issues that align with their interests. Like GOTV efforts, down ballot completion efforts should generally target known supporters, and partners can use issue scores in conjunction with turnout scores and the Down Ballot Completion Score to ensure they are communicating with the voters most likely to support their work. 
  • For example, say a partner is running a campaign to protect reproductive rights in their state. They could create a target universe for messaging with the following filters:
    • High Presidential General Turnout Score: identify likely top-of-ticket voters
    • High Reproductive Rights Support Score: identify likely supporters of reproductive rights protections
    • Low to mid Down Ballot Completion Score: identify those less likely to complete their ballots
  • As a result, their message would be delivered to voters who are likely to support the cause and participate in the election, but who might need extra encouragement to fully complete their ballot and vote on the relevant measure itself. 
• Improving Voter Education: The Down Ballot Completion Score can be used to identify voters who may need more information about the issues on their ballot. Voter education campaigns can then be tailored to these individuals with clear, concise information about ballot propositions and their potential impact. For example, consider targeting voters with mid-to-high Presidential General Turnout Scores but mid-to-low Down Ballot Completion Scores. A month before the election, send them a ballot proposition guide alongside messaging asking for a commitment to vote, then follow up with GOTV outreach the weekend before. This sequence helps increase turnout while ensuring voters make informed decisions.

Targeting Table

The table below shows the score values associated with each decile to help you more easily target using the Down Ballot Completion Score nationally. Note: these score cutoffs may be different in your local districts.

To target the top...	Set the minimum score value as...
10%	80
20%	73
30%	66
40%	58
50%	50
60%	42
70%	37
80%	32
90%	28
100%	11