Turnout–whether or not a person votes in a given election–is one of the most critical indicators organizers use to guide strategy, allocate resources, and measure engagement. Turnout modeling helps organizers answer a key question: “If I reach out to this person, are they likely to vote?”
A turnout model defines a voting likelihood in a given election for each registered voter. Understanding turnout at the individual level allows campaigns and organizations to:
- Optimize GOTV resource allocation by targeting voters who need encouragement but are the most likely to respond to outreach (typically mid-range of a turnout score).
- Focus persuasion efforts on likely voters rather than wasting messaging resources on people who are unlikely to vote
- Set realistic turnout goals for different voter segments
Turnout Models at Murmuration
Turnout models are one of the most foundational tools for political organizing, and they are the most widely used of all Murmuration models. However, turnout varies dramatically depending on the election type—we wouldn't expect turnout in an April school board primary to mirror turnout in a presidential election. A one-size-fits-all approach to turnout modeling wouldn't provide the accuracy organizers need.
Instead, Murmuration has built specialized turnout models to cover a wide variety of potential election types, with a unique focus on local elections such as school board and municipal races—contests that are often overlooked by other providers but can have enormous impact on communities.
At Murmuration, we offer the following turnout models:
- Municipal Turnout Score
- School Board Turnout Score
- County Turnout Score
- Local Voter Score
- Off Year Statewide General Turnout Score
- Statewide Primary Turnout Score
- Midterm General Turnout Score
- Presidential Primary Turnout Score
- Presidential General Turnout Score
How to Choose a Murmuration Turnout Model
Murmuration designed these turnout scores so that partners can choose a turnout model based on their election of focus even if that election is held concurrently with other races.
Local Elections:
Municipal Turnout Score for city-level races
- Mayor, city council, municipal ballot measures
School Board Turnout Score for school district elections
- School board members
County Turnout Score for county-wide contests
- County commissioner, sheriff, county clerk, county ballot measures
Local Voter Score for local elections that are not covered by any of the above three scores
- The Local Voter Score is a general indicator of propensity to vote in local (i.e. non-statewide) elections. We recommend using this score when the highest office contested on the ballot is not covered by any other existing turnout scores ( Municipal Turnout Score, County Turnout Score, and School Board Turnout Score).
State and Federal Elections:
Off Year Statewide General Turnout Score for statewide races in odd-numbered years held on the first Tuesday of November
- Governor, state legislature, statewide ballot measures (in select states that hold these elections in odd numbered years)
Statewide Primary Turnout Score for primary elections where statewide/federal races are top-of-ticket (and not held concurrently with presidential primaries)
- Senate or Gubernatorial Primaries, or Congressional primaries held during midterm/presidential years
Midterm General Turnout Score for congressional elections in even, non-presidential years
Presidential Primary/General Turnout Scores for presidential election cycles