Definition
The Healthcare Support Score indicates the likelihood that a voter views healthcare as a fundamental human right that should be guaranteed by the government.
Technical Details
The model was built from the following survey question:
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement:
Healthcare is a human right that the government should guarantee.
- Strongly Disagree
- Disagree
- Neither Agree nor Disagree
- Agree
- Strongly Agree
Respondents who answered "Strongly Agree" or "Agree" are labeled as healthcare supporters. Respondents who answered "Neither Agree nor Disagree," "Disagree," or "Strongly Disagree" are labeled as non-healthcare supporters.
The Healthcare Support Score was trained on polling data from the Winter 2025 Murmuration poll. We collected 8,002 responses online from registered voters in December 2025. The survey used stratified random sampling to ensure national representativeness across age, race, gender, partisanship, education and geography.
The model was trained using gradient-boosted decision trees. Model features were drawn from the Atlas by Murmuration dataset, which includes demographic (age, race, gender, etc.), commercial, geographic, and vote history information for all registered voters nationally.
Scores range from 0-100, where higher scores indicate greater likelihood that a voter supports government-guaranteed healthcare access. The score represents the model's predicted probability (scaled to 0-100) that an individual would strongly agree or agree that government-guaranteed healthcare access should be a human right.
We validated the model's accuracy using a held-out set of 1,543 polling respondents (20% of the original survey sample) whose data was not used during model development. Among individuals with scores in the top 20% of the Healthcare Support Score, 96% are actual healthcare supporters—making them 33% more likely to support healthcare access than the average voter.
Use Cases
The Healthcare Support Score can be used in a variety of ways when building a campaign strategy and planning voter engagement. It can also be used independently or in conjunction with other scores. Below are a few examples for how partners could use this score:
- GOTV Efforts for Pro Healthcare Candidates and Health Policy: This score identifies voters who are likely to view healthcare as a fundamental human right that should be guaranteed by the government, and partners can use it to run GOTV campaigns in races where healthcare policy is a central issue — such as state legislative races, gubernatorial contests, or federal elections where candidates have taken explicit stances on universal healthcare, Medicaid expansion, or public health insurance options. Targeting voters with high Healthcare Support Scores for turnout efforts can potentially increase vote share in favor of candidates and policies that prioritize guaranteed healthcare access. To pinpoint optimal GOTV targets, we recommend combining this score with a turnout score. By targeting voters with medium to low turnout scores and high Healthcare Support Scores, partners can use the healthcare issue to provide an extra nudge to people who need some encouragement to cast their ballot.
- Persuasion: The Healthcare Support Score can also be used for persuasion campaigns (i.e., identifying likely voters who might need additional messaging or outreach in order to support candidates and policies that treat healthcare as a guaranteed right). In this case, we recommend targeting voters with mid-range Healthcare Support Scores and high turnout scores. These voters are likely to participate in the election but may be undecided or have mixed feelings about the role of government in guaranteeing healthcare access. They represent a critical segment that could be swayed with targeted, persuasive communication — particularly messaging that emphasizes the personal and economic impact of healthcare insecurity, stories of constituents navigating gaps in coverage, or the broader moral case for universal access.
Targeting Table
The table below shows the score values associated with each decile to help you more easily target using the Healthcare Support Score nationally. Note: these score cutoffs may be different in your local districts.
| To target the top... | Set the minimum score value as... |
| 10% | 93 |
| 20% | 91 |
| 30% | 89 |
| 40% | 84 |
| 50% | 79 |
| 60% | 74 |
| 70% | 67 |
| 80% | 57 |
| 90% | 42 |
| 100% | 10 |