Definition
The Fair Districts Support Score indicates the likelihood a person supports drawing districts fairly to represent voters, rather than to advantage a particular political party.
Technical Details
The model was built from the following polling question:
If a political party’s policies benefit most Americans, it’s acceptable to redraw districts in a way that helps that party win.
- Strongly Disagree
- Disagree
- Neither Agree nor Disagree
- Agree
- Strongly Agree
- No Opinion
Respondents who answered "Strongly Disagree" or "Disagree" are classified as fair districts supporters. Respondents who answered "Neither Agree nor Disagree," “No Opinion, "Agree," or "Strongly Agree" are classified as non-fair districts supporters.
The Fair Districts Support Score was trained on polling data from the Winter 2025 Murmuration poll. We collected 8,002 responses online from registered voters in December 2025. The survey used stratified random sampling to ensure national representativeness across age, race, gender, partisanship, education and geography.
The model was trained using gradient-boosted decision trees. Model features were drawn from the Atlas by Murmuration dataset, which includes demographic (age, race, gender, etc.), commercial, geographic, and vote history information for all registered voters nationally.
Scores range from 0-100, where higher scores indicate greater likelihood that a voter supports fair redistricting. The score represents the model's predicted probability (scaled to 0-100) that an individual would strongly disagree or disagree that it is acceptable to redraw districts along partisan lines.
We validated the model's accuracy using a held-out set of 1,543 polling respondents (20% of the original survey sample) whose data was not used during model development. Among individuals with scores in the top 20% of the Fair Districts Support Score, 75% are actual fair districts supporters—making them 30% more likely to support fair redistricting than the average voter.
Use Cases
- Persuasion: If a partner wanted to disseminate information advocating for fair redistricting to folks who may not be informed or are unsure of their position, they could use a threshold of middling (e.g. 46 to 59) Fair Districts Support Scores.
- Targeting: Partners could use a high threshold (e.g. 59 and above) to target fair districts supporters ahead of events or elections. This score could be combined with a turnout score for GOTV.
Targeting Table
The table below shows the score values associated with each decile to help you more easily target using the Fair Districts Support Score nationally. Note: these score cutoffs may be different in your local districts.
| To target the top... | Set the minimum score value as... |
| 10% | 71 |
| 20% | 64 |
| 30% | 59 |
| 40% | 55 |
| 50% | 52 |
| 60% | 49 |
| 70% | 45 |
| 80% | 41 |
| 90% | 34 |
| 100% | 11 |