Definition
The Vaccination Support Score indicates the likelihood that a person believes vaccines are safe and effective.
Technical Details
The model was built from the following survey question:
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement:
Vaccines are safe and effective.
- Strongly Disagree
- Disagree
- Neither Agree nor Disagree
- Agree
- Strongly Agree
Respondents who answered "Strongly Agree" or "Agree" are labeled as vaccine supporters. Respondents who answered "Neither Agree nor Disagree," "Disagree," or "Strongly Disagree" are labeled as non-vaccine supporters.
The Vaccination Support Score was trained on polling data from the Winter 2025 Murmuration poll. We collected 8,002 responses online from registered voters in December 2025. The survey used stratified random sampling to ensure national representativeness across age, race, gender, partisanship, education and geography.
The model was trained using gradient-boosted decision trees. Model features were drawn from the Atlas by Murmuration dataset, which includes demographic (age, race, gender, etc.), commercial, geographic, and vote history information for all registered voters nationally.
Scores range from 0-100, where higher scores indicate greater likelihood that a voter supports vaccines. The score represents the model's predicted probability (scaled to 0-100) that an individual would strongly agree or agree that vaccines are safe and effective.
We validated the model's accuracy using a held-out set of 1,543 polling respondents (20% of the original survey sample) whose data was not used during model development. Among individuals with scores in the top 20% of the Vaccination Support Score, 90% are actual vaccine supporters—making them 41% more likely to support vaccines than the average voter.
Use Cases
The Vaccination Support Score can be used in a variety of ways when building a campaign strategy and planning voter and community engagement. It can also be used independently or in conjunction with other scores. Below are a few examples for how partners could use this score:
- GOTV Efforts for Pro-Vaccine Candidates and Public Health Policy: This score identifies likely supporters of vaccination and public health initiatives, and partners can use it to run GOTV campaigns in races where vaccine policy is a salient issue — such as school board elections, state legislative races, or contests where candidates have taken explicit stances on vaccine mandates, exemptions, or public health funding. Targeting voters with high Vaccination Support Scores for turnout efforts can potentially increase vote share in favor of pro-vaccine candidates and policies. To pinpoint optimal GOTV targets, we recommend combining this score with a turnout score. By targeting voters with medium to low turnout scores and high Vaccination Support Scores, partners can use vaccination and public health as motivating issues to provide an extra nudge to people who need some encouragement to cast their ballot.
- Persuasion: The Vaccination Support Score can also be used for persuasion campaigns (i.e., identifying likely voters who might need additional messaging or outreach in order to support pro-vaccine candidates or public health-friendly policy platforms). In this case, we recommend targeting voters with mid-range Vaccination Support Scores and high turnout scores. These voters are likely to participate in the election but may be undecided or have mixed feelings about vaccine-related issues. They represent a critical segment that could be swayed with targeted, persuasive communication — particularly messaging that emphasizes shared values around community health, protecting vulnerable populations, or personal choice within a public health framework.
Targeting Table
The table below shows the score values associated with each decile to help you more easily target using the Vaccination Support Score nationally. Note: these score cutoffs may be different in your local districts.
| To target the top... | Set the minimum score value as... |
| 10% | 87 |
| 20% | 79 |
| 30% | 72 |
| 40% | 66 |
| 50% | 61 |
| 60% | 56 |
| 70% | 52 |
| 80% | 48 |
| 90% | 44 |
| 100% | 22 |