Definition
The Voting Access Support Score indicates a person’s likelihood of supporting laws which make it easier to vote.
Technical Details
The model was built from the following polling question:
Voting should be as easy as possible, even if people don't always need to show a government issued ID.
- Strongly Disagree
- Disagree
- Neither Agree nor Disagree
- Agree
- Strongly Agree
- No Opinion
Respondents who answered "Strongly Agree" or "Agree" are classified as voting access supporters. Respondents who answered "Disagree," or "Strongly Disagree" are classified as non-supporters.
The Voting Access Support Score was trained on polling data from the Winter 2025 Murmuration poll. We collected 8,002 responses online from registered voters in December 2025. The survey used stratified random sampling to ensure national representativeness across age, race, gender, partisanship, education and geography.
The model was trained using gradient-boosted decision trees. Model features were drawn from the Atlas by Murmuration dataset, which includes demographic (age, race, gender, etc.), commercial, geographic, and vote history information for all registered voters nationally.
Scores range from 0-100, where higher scores indicate greater likelihood that a voter supports improved voter access laws. The score represents the model's predicted probability (scaled to 0-100) that an individual would strongly agree or agree that voting should be as easy as possible.
We validated the model's accuracy using a held-out set of 1,543 polling respondents (20% of the original survey sample) whose data was not used during model development. Among individuals with scores in the top 20% of the Voting Access Support Score, 74% are actual voting access supporters—making them 86% more likely to support improved voting access than the average voter.
Use Cases
- Targeting: Partners may be interested in reaching out to voters who support improved voting access to contact their senators and urge them to not support voter suppression legislation, or support candidates/ballot propositions in support of voting access. Partners could use a high threshold (e.g. above 62) to recruit such voters.
- Persuasion: Partners could use a middle score range (e.g. 26 to 55) to provide potentially undecided or uninformed voters with information or messaging on how voter ID laws can be disenfranchising.
Targeting Table
The table below shows the score values associated with each decile to help you more easily target using the Voting Access Support Score nationally. Note: these score cutoffs may be different in your local districts.
| To target the top... | Set the minimum score value as... |
| 10% | 70 |
| 20% | 62 |
| 30% | 55 |
| 40% | 47 |
| 50% | 39 |
| 60% | 32 |
| 70% | 26 |
| 80% | 20 |
| 90% | 16 |
| 100% | 10 |