Definition
The Party Dissatisfaction Score indicates a person's likelihood of feeling that no political party represents them adequately.
Technical Details
The model was built from the following polling question:
No political party represents people like me.
- Strongly Disagree
- Disagree
- Neither Agree nor Disagree
- Agree
- Strongly Agree
- No Opinion
Respondents who answered "Strongly Agree" or "Agree" are classified as party dissatisfaction supporters. Respondents who answered "Disagree" or "Strongly Disagree" are classified as non-supporters. Respondents who answered "Neither Agree nor Disagree" or "No Opinion" are excluded from the model entirely.
The Party Dissatisfaction Score was trained on polling data from the Winter 2025 Murmuration poll. We collected 8,002 responses online from registered voters in December 2025. The survey used stratified random sampling to ensure national representativeness across age, race, gender, partisanship, education and geography.
The model was trained using gradient-boosted decision trees (CatBoost). Model features were drawn from the Atlas by Murmuration dataset, which includes demographic (age, race, gender, etc.), commercial, geographic, and vote history information for all registered voters nationally.
Scores range from 0-100, where higher scores indicate greater likelihood that a voter feels unrepresented by existing political parties. The score represents the model's predicted probability (scaled to 0-100) that an individual would agree or strongly agree that no political party represents people like them.
We validated the model's accuracy using a held-out set of 1,043 polling respondents (20% of the original survey sample) whose data was not used during model development. Among individuals with scores in the top 20% of the Party Dissatisfaction Score, 62% are actual party dissatisfaction supporters, making them 39% more likely to feel unrepresented by existing parties than the average voter.
Use Cases
- Persuasion: Voters with scores in the middle range (41-55) may be persuadable on issues related to third party support or non-traditional party candidates. These individuals show some dissatisfaction with existing parties but have not fully committed to that position, making them potential targets for messaging around alternative political representation.
- Targeting: Partners can use high scores to identify voters most likely to feel unrepresented by existing political parties. Setting a minimum score of 59 (top 20%) targets voters who may be receptive to third party support or non-traditional party candidates.
Targeting Table
The table below shows the score values associated with each decile to help you more easily target using the Party Dissatisfaction Score nationally. Note: these score cutoffs may be different in your local districts.
| To target the top... | Set the minimum score value as... |
| 10% | 63 |
| 20% | 59 |
| 30% | 55 |
| 40% | 52 |
| 50% | 49 |
| 60% | 46 |
| 70% | 41 |
| 80% | 36 |
| 90% | 30 |
| 100% | 7 |