Definition
The Reproductive Rights Support Score indicates a person's likelihood to believe the federal government should allow abortions in all or most cases.
Technical Details
The model was built from the following polling question:
Which of the following is the closest to your view on abortion?
- The federal government should allow abortions in ALL cases
- The federal government should allow abortions in MOST cases
- The federal government should only allow abortions in A FEW Cases
- The federal government should NEVER allow abortions
Respondents who answered “The federal government should allow abortions in ALL cases” or “The federal government should allow abortions in MOST cases” were labeled as reproductive rights supporters. Respondents who answered “The federal government should only allow abortions in A FEW cases” or “The federal government should NEVER allow abortions ” were labeled as non-supporters.
The Reproductive Right Support Score was trained on polling data from the Summer 2024 Murmuration poll. We collected 6,694 responses on phone and online from registered voters in April and May of 2024. The survey used stratified random sampling to ensure national representativeness across age, race, gender, partisanship, education and geography.
The model was trained using gradient-boosted decision trees. Model features were drawn from the Atlas by Murmuration dataset, which includes demographic (age, race, gender, etc.), commercial, geographic, and vote history information for all registered voters nationally.
Scores range from 0-100, where higher scores indicate greater likelihood that a voter supports reproductive rights. The score represents the model's predicted probability (scaled to 0-100) that an individual believes that the federal government should allow abortion in all or most cases.
We validated the model's accuracy using a held-out set of 1,263 polling respondents (20% of the original survey sample) whose data was not used during model development. Among individuals with scores in the top 20% of the Reproductive Rights Support Score, 91% are actual reproductive rights supporters—making them 37% more likely to support reproductive rights than the average voter.
Use Cases
- GOTV Efforts for Reproductive Rights Ballot Initiatives and Pro-Choice Candidates: This score identifies likely supporters of reproductive rights, and partners can use it to run GOTV campaigns for reproductive rights ballot initiatives and pro-choice candidates. Targeting voters with high Reproductive Rights Support Scores for turnout efforts can potentially increase vote share in favor of reproductive rights in these races.
To pinpoint optimal GOTV targets, we recommend combining this score with a turnout score. By targeting voters with medium to low turnout scores and high Reproductive Rights Support Scores, partners can use the reproductive rights issue to provide an extra nudge to people who need some encouragement to cast their ballot. - Persuasion: The Reproductive Rights Support Score can also be used for persuasion campaigns (i.e., identifying the likely voters who might need additional messaging or support in order to vote in favor of reproductive rights ballot initiatives or pro-choice candidates). In this case, we recommend targeting voters with mid-range Reproductive Rights Support Scores and high turnout scores. These voters are likely to participate in the election but may be undecided or have mixed feelings about reproductive rights issues. They represent a critical segment that could be swayed with targeted, persuasive communication.
Targeting Table
The table below shows the score values associated with each decile to help you more easily target using the Reproductive Rights Support Score nationally. Note: these score cutoffs may be different in your local districts.
| To target the top... | Set the minimum score value as... |
| 10% | 86 |
| 20% | 80 |
| 30% | 76 |
| 40% | 71 |
| 50% | 65 |
| 60% | 58 |
| 70% | 51 |
| 80% | 43 |
| 90% | 32 |
| 100% | 5 |